Perspective - Statistics edition.

Pop math quiz! Identify the daily per-capita horrid death probability.

1) 1 : 93,000
2) 1 : 337,000
3) 1 : 1,600,000
4) 1 : 2,300,000
5) 1 : 80,000,000

....choose from....

A) Daily chance of being killed in Iraq (National average).
(toll, population, Jan-June 2006)

B) Daily chance of being a homicide victim in Philadelphia
(toll, population, 2005 year)

C) Daily chance of an Israeli being killed by Hezbollah
(toll, population, July 12 - July 30)

D) Daily chance of a Lebani being killed by Israel
(toll, population, July 12 - 30)

E) Per ticket chance of winning the Powerball.
(Math, it's only math)


Go on, figure it out: to fill in sapce with an idle diversion I give you this promo for http://www.despair.com/. (This one is soooo grad school)












OK fine. Answer time. (Caveat: Check the math yourself, 'cause I might have made a mistake!)The lotto has the worst odds. It always does in virtually any comparison. Don't play the lotto, it's stupid.

Just about everyone has a better chance of buying the farm, than winning the lotto on a ticket a day. But how many Nasty Premature Death Lotto tickets do people in these various danger zones buy each day? Units are in per-capita death lottery tickets every day.

Israel: 1 : 2,300,000 ~ 35 tickets.
-Of the 51 reported fatalities, 18 were civilian.
Philly: 1 : 1,600,000 ~48 tickets.
-Our fifth largest city had 377 homicides last year.
Iraq: 1 : 337,000 ~ 237 tickets.
-14,400 deaths in 6 months = "last throes"
Lebanon: 1 : 93,000 ~861 tickets.
-Life is tough in war zones.

On average, a Philadelphia resident is more likely to be killed in a violent crime than an Israeli is likely to be killed at war with Hezbollah. Factor out the military deaths, and it's a lot more likely. On the other hand, the average the death rate in Lebanon is about four times higher than in Iraq, which is considered by some to be in the midst of a civil war.

You might notice a difference there, but you'd be better off pretending you didn't. At a minimum you'd better not identify anything as "disproportionate", because people will not only accuse you of being anti-semitic, they'll accuse you of rooting for Hitler.